Introduction: Why Devolution Still Matters

Since 2013, devolution has transformed Kenya’s political and economic landscape. County governments now run hospitals, hire staff, build roads, manage markets, and influence local development in ways previously controlled from Nairobi. For many Kenyans, devolution represents hope—a promise that resources and decision-making will finally reach the grassroots.

But after more than a decade, important questions remain:

• Is devolution working as intended?
• Are counties delivering value for taxpayers?
• What reforms are necessary to strengthen local governance?

This article explores the future of devolution in Kenya, the opportunities ahead, and the reforms required to make it truly effective.

1. The Promise of Devolution: What Went Right

1.1 Improved Access to Services

Counties have significantly improved local service delivery, especially in:

• Health care (Level 1–5 hospitals, community health units)
• Agriculture (extension services, local cooperatives)
• Infrastructure (feeder roads, street lighting, markets)
• Water services (boreholes, pipelines, community projects)

Many rural communities can now access services that were previously unavailable.

1.2 Localised Economic Development

Counties have become economic hubs, attracting:

• New SMEs
• Real estate development
• Hospitality and tourism investments
• Agribusiness and value-addition industries

1.3 Increased Citizen Participation

Public participation forums—though imperfect—have opened spaces for ordinary citizens to influence county decisions.

2. The Challenges: What Holds Devolution Back?

2.1 Delayed Fund Disbursements

Counties often receive transfers late, disrupting salaries and development projects. This creates a cycle of stalled projects, pending bills, and public frustration.

2.2 Corruption & Mismanagement

Several audit reports show:

• Inflated procurement
• Ghost projects
• Poor absorption of development funds
• Weak internal controls

This erodes public trust and drains county resources.

2.3 Duplication of Functions

Conflicts between national and county governments persist in areas like:

• Health management
• Roads classification
• Agriculture
• Housing
• Water services

The lack of clarity leads to turf wars and poor coordination.

2.4 Weak Revenue Collection

Most counties rely almost entirely on the national share. Own Source Revenue (OSR) targets remain consistently unmet due to:

• Poor valuation rolls
• Manual systems
• Leakages in local taxation
• Political interference

3. The Next Phase: What the Future of Devolution Could Look Like

3.1 Digital Counties: Technology Is the Game-Changer

The future county will run on digital systems:

• Digitised revenue collection → reduces graft, increases efficiency
• Integrated health records → better patient care
• GIS mapping for land & planning
• Smart county dashboards → real-time accountability
• Data-driven budgeting
• E-service delivery platforms

Counties that adopt technology early will lead Kenya’s next development wave.

3.2 Fiscal Independence Through Stronger Revenue Models

Counties that strengthen OSR through:

• Modern valuation rolls
• Automated parking and market fees
• Land rates optimisation
• Tourism levies
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs)

…will reduce overreliance on the National Treasury and expand development budgets.

3.3 Stronger Inter-County Economic Blocs

Regional blocs like:

• Frontier Counties Development Council (FCDC)
• Lake Region Economic Bloc (LREB)
• Jumuia ya Kaunti za Pwani (JKP)

…show that counties can pool resources for larger projects such as:

• Shared hospitals
• Regional roads
• Cross-county water projects
• Joint ICT systems
• Trade promotion
• Mega tourism initiatives

The future of devolution lies in shared prosperity, not isolated county efforts.

3.4 Strengthening Oversight & Transparency

Expect to see more pressure for:

• Full publication of county budgets
• Mandatory open contracting systems
• Real-time project tracking
• Asset registers
• Public participation audits

Civil society, the media, and institutions like CAJ, EACC, OAG, and Senate will increasingly demand transparency.

3.5 More Power to Citizens

The next evolution of devolution will see:

• Participatory budgeting
• Citizen scorecards for county officials
• Community monitoring of projects
• Increased use of digital feedback tools

As Kenyans become more politically aware, county leaders will face more accountability.

4. The Big Debate: Should Kenya Go for a 3-Tier System?

There is emerging debate on whether Kenya should adopt a three-tier governance structure by elevating economic blocs into regional governments.

Supporters say this would:

• Improve resource pooling
• Reduce duplication
• Strengthen planning
• Promote equitable development

Critics argue it could:

• Create more bureaucracy
• Increase political offices
• Raise costs of governance

While politically sensitive, the debate will shape Kenya’s future governance structure.

5. What Counties Must Do to Succeed in the Next Decade

✔ Professionalise county public service

Hire on merit, not politics. Skilled staff = better outcomes.

✔ Adopt ICT fully

From revenue to service delivery, ICT is non-negotiable.

✔ Strengthen financial discipline

Timely audits, strict procurement controls, and reduced pending bills.

✔ Grow local economies

Invest in sectors that create jobs: agribusiness, tourism, logistics, manufacturing, digital jobs.

✔ Improve public participation

Make citizen engagement meaningful – not just ticking legal boxes.

Conclusion: Devolution Is Here to Stay—But It Must Evolve

Devolution has delivered milestones—but it has also revealed weaknesses in Kenya’s governance system. The next phase requires strong leadership, technology adoption, fiscal innovation, and citizen empowerment.

If Kenya embraces these reforms, devolution will not only survive—it will become the engine of Kenya’s long-term political stability, economic growth, and social transformation.